We’ve discussed short term planning and prep in a previous post, the next phase begins roughly 20-30 days after the event and lasts until you can achieve sustainability. Recall that the short-term will be covered by a relatively moderate amount of preparation and supplies, augmented by whatever you have on hand or can grab prior to the depletion of local stores. That will represent the last link to normal and familiar existence, after that runs out you will need to shift to a much more labor intensive routine. Most of us take advantage of prepared foods and many modern conveniences, none of which will exist. There are a number of categories to consider:

• Heating
• Power
• Cooking
• Water
• Food
• Sanitation
• Self-defense
• Shelter
• Fuel
• Transportation
• Human interaction

It’s sort of a “OK I made it this far, now what?” scenario.  Up to that point, chances are it will seem like a camping trip or the aftermath of a hurricane; not a lot of work just consuming supplies. The next phase will need to last long enough to get things ramped up to allow existing on what you can grow and collect in and around your dwelling.  That’s the Day366 idea, maybe it’s Day183 but same principal. At some point, no matter how much stuff you hoard you will run out. That will be primarily food related items, the rest is less critical and beyond the scope of this blog. To a large extent, other things will become available as people move on (both figuratively and literally). For instance, say 5 months later you need some nails. The local Home Depot will probably have lots of them, you can’t eat nails and they are useless to looters.

I’m going to cover the last item of my list first, Human Interaction. This might be the most important one, since your survival could depend on who shows up at your place.

Human Interactions

There’s a new movie out called “American Blackout”, I don’t plan on watching it but the plot revolves around a cyber-attack on the power grid. It covers the first 10 days, but I’m not sure if it assumes the blackout lasts longer than that. This made me think (again) about how people would respond in a crisis, and how my planning would be affected.  Frankly, I have a very tough time imagining what others will do. We all tend to assume people will behave in a certain fashion, either like us, helpless incompetents, or as criminals.  That’s the sense I get visiting prep sites, maybe that’s correct but no idea, really. I’m going to try to be open-minded and think this one through.

Neighbors

These folks are, by virtue of proximity and familiarity, going to be the first to come a ‘knocking.  I expect them to be out and about and seeking help and information from the start of the crisis, it’s only natural but begs the question of how to respond.  On one hand, if outsiders cause trouble you may want to band together for protection. On the other, chances are they will only drain what limited resources you have and expect you to help even if you can’t. My position is to offer guidance, information (you may be the only link to the outside), and assistance defending against outsiders.  Say nothing about what you have, that will create a terrible problem later. I’d like to be able to function as Farmer Bob and feed the subdivision, but that’s not practical. So, the only reasonable path is to defer food requests and make them find it themselves. I could probably provide clean drinking water, assuming they bring it to me for filtering and treatment. I could also give them a few seeds, if they can plant and maintain a garden.  You have to force people to shift for themselves, otherwise they will do nothing and expect to be taken care of. Sound harsh, but there’s no other way to handle it.  It’s the old saying about teaching someone to fish rather than giving them one…

The exception to this is block defense, if strangers begin roaming and looting houses you may need to form a team to repel them. I suppose it would be like a tiny version of the Minutemen, those who own firearms respond to the call. That assumes your neighbors are not royally pissed off at you and/or are the ones doing the looting.

What I’d really like to do is organize the nearby homes, pool resources, and get cranking on the gardening/farming/wood cutting/improvising.  Whether or not I can convince people to follow that is a big question, but they’d have few options.   Beats me if this is feasible, or it breaks down and we end up in Mad Max mode after all.

Outsiders

This is the land of pure speculation. I’m not sure if too many outsiders would show up, given the difficulty of travel and resupply. If they did, I would stay quiet and wait until they left. If they caused trouble, warn then dispatch. I don’t see how you could tolerate any form of looting, that defeats the whole purpose of prepping and would cause you to lose everything you worked so hard to put in place.  ‘Nuff said there.  One complication would be cops and armed forces, if they started commandeering private property under some bullshit law it would put you in a real bind. I could just see the local doughnut eaters trying this, although I doubt it would be successful. If the armed forces do it, maybe better equipped but still facing resistance from heavily armed homeowners. Same approach, hide then attack if they persist.

Food

Learning from my storage experiments, here’s what I recommend as the food options:

1. Freeze dried entrees, veggies, fruits. This stuff is reasonably priced, stores for up to 25 years, and has enough variety to prevent food monotony. How much is up to you, but I suggest at a minimum three meals a day per person for 3 months. This, added to the short term stock plus things I list later, should get you to the 6 month or beyond mark. http://www.beprepared.com is a good source of these items, I’ve been very happy with them.
2. Freeze dried basics. You will want to augment the entrees with some staples, like potatoes, soy protein meat substitutes, powdered eggs, powdered milk/butter/sour cream/tomato paste, etc. These allow you add in simple sides and also make things like pasta sauce from long term stores. This will stretch out your entrée selection and use things like rice, beans, and pasta in normal dishes rather than prison camp fare.  What’s for breakfast? Beans. Lunch? Beans. Dinner? Get ready….RICE! Yay!  Need to avoid that trap. http://www.rainydayfoods.com/ is a good source for all this.
3. Grocery Store items. You don’t need to buy everything in sealed cans, here’s a sample of what can be safely stored in Ziplock bags and boxes:
   1. Pasta.
   2. Rice
   3. Baking powder
   4. Yeast
   5. Salt
   6. Sugar
   7. Spices
   8. Cocoa
   9. Dry soup mix
   10. Potato flakes
   11. Canned meat. Note: this needs to be stored separately, rotated and checked. The cans do corrode and the result is a disaster.
4. Grains and legumes. Sold as a kit by BePrepared, contains a years supply of misc grains. Highly recommended, but note requires a grain mill for the wheat and oats.
5. Oils. I’m still working on this, but so far the leading candidate is coconut oil. It’s almost fully saturated, is a solid below 75 F, and is said to keep for 6+ years if kept cool, dark, and unopened.  Plain corn oil is OK if you check it, but this is a work in progress.  BTW you MUST have some kind of fats and oils in your diet, plan on looking like the Olsen twins without it.
6. Powdered drink mix, coffee.  This falls under the monotony rule, it is said that drinking just plain water leads to dehydration, esp. with kids.  Packets and jars of Koolaid and chocolate milk store well and are easy to make.

Heating and Cooking

Really the same thing, you probably will be using the same item as a heat source and for cooking. The best approach is a propane burner, this can be run indoors with no smoke. Downside is the need to stockpile gas, but some quick ciphering leads you to about 8-10 15 lb cylinders as a minimum. That’s not bad at all, and highly recommended. Using a Coleman camp oven on top the burner gives you a small volume stove.

Alternately, you can purchase a cheap wood stove and pop for the Lehman’s Amish oven. This is a lot more hassle, you have to run a chimney, cut and season wood, and will create a giant signal that says “go here to pillage”.  It’s totally non-stealthy, and really belongs in the Day366 section but thought I’d mention it.

Stay tuned for more when I get motivated to finish this post….