So we talked about what constitutes an major emergency, but what would happen afterwards? Frankly, no one really knows.  Let’s list some past events to see what we can glean from them.

Hurricane Katrina

In my  opinion, this was a demonstration of what would happen albeit on a small (city-wide) scale. Highlights:

• Utter failure of local/city/state/federal responders.  Despite being limited to New Orleans and surrounding areas, it took forever for the Guard and Feds to get into the area and do basic rescue and supply operations.  Police disappeared, creating a lawless city. Keep in mind the rest of the country was not affected.
• Non-existent/insufficient planning and backup supplies. The evacuation plan was comical, and was not implemented until far too late. Afterwards, there was no coherent plan to follow (just winging it).
•  Reliance of the populace on “the authorities” to help them. Remember all the people in the dome with no food, water, sanitation, or medical attention?
• Widespread looting. No cops, open season on stores.

This is the biggest disaster in memory, nothing else comes close in terms of disruption.  Because of the flooding, it was very difficult to get in and out of the city and showed how critical transportation and resupply from unaffected areas is to the crisis.

2009 H1N1 Swine Flu

This was a dress reheasal for contagion. Again, highlights:

• Slow (excrutiatingly) response from WHO. The outbreak was in full swing in Mexico City before they showed up, and longer until they figured out what was going on.
• Spread of the virus to the US and other places before any warnings were issued. It wasn’t until a school in NYC was infected and many students got sick did they issue a travel advisory.  By then it had popped up in multiple locations in the US.
• Indifference to the situation by the public. I was shocked at how little people knew about H1N1 and that they might want to monitor events for their own safety.

SARS was a lot like this, it showed up in Canada before anyone really got the story.

I can’t think of any other really major events, but these have some potential to illustrate the potential response to a larger emergency. Takeaways:

1. People will be slow to realize the true nature and scope of the emergency.
2. The authorities may be incapacitated or spread so thin as to be ineffective.
3. Few concrete and actionable plans, public or private, will exist to deal with said emergency.
4. Aid and assistance will be delayed or minimal.