Tag Archives: bugging out

EMP, blackouts, and traffic jams

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Someone I know recently asked me about EMP-proofing a vehicle, and the first question I had was “where are you planning on going after an EMP event, exactly?”  I always assumed that vehicles were going to be worthless in any sort of crisis, but it made me think in more detail about why.

Let’s assume, for argument’s sake, that just the power grid in a region goes down during the day (no other EMP effects).   What is the reaction to that? Well,  we know all traffic signals will be off, and the existing traffic will be forced to follow the 4-stop rule. People don’t seem to comprehend this (when’s the last time you saw a 4 way stop?), so most if not all intersections will become bottlenecked or gridlocked.  And that’s just the people already on the road. If it’s between 7 AM and 7 PM, those at work will get in their cars and leave, causing total mayhem on the surface streets and feeders. Major highways will not be able to offload the traffic due to blocked side streets, and ramps will back up. Interstates in rural areas will probably continue to flow, until the first vehicles run out of gas and start blocking lanes. If traffic is stopped for long periods, anywhere, some will run out of gas and will block the lanes, causing more delays and potentially a locked up road.  Remember, we are talking about ALL power being off in a wide area, with no easy way to pump or transport fuel.  Things may take a very long time to sort out, if they do at all.  I believe a person in a city has a very short time to take action and get on a major roadway before being caught in a jam, anywhere from a few minutes to 15 or so at most. On the freeway, things will take longer to slow down but figure on a 10-15 minute window to reach the outer parts of the city then a few hours to reach the next major metro area or a roadblock.

On the other hand, if it occurs late at night/early AM, things are a bit better and you may not have an immediate jam up although travel will probably be slow due to the lack of signals. But, if this was a deliberate act it’s unlikely to occur at night (maximize the damage).

We can also assume the authorities will ban non-emergency travel in the immediate aftermath, to preserve any hope of keeping military and police transportation operating.  You can count on the police and FEMA being in total full bore crisis mode, and they will likely initiate a curfew as well as some sort of local roadblocks to keep people contained.  So your travel is soon going to be limited no matter how you slice it.

As a side note, all this assumes no vehicles are being affected by EMP, and it was just a power blackout. If even single digit percentages are disabled, they will probably immediately block all the roads even if if not many people are out and about. People generally don’t skillfully head for the shoulder when the engine dies, on the remaining inertia. They coast to a halt right there, seen it many, many times.

Hence, my discounting any value in having a vehicle after the fact. It may be useful long after the crisis has passed, but to run post-EMP errands, no.  Travel will need to be by foot or bike, and my plan is to take the railroad tracks home if I’m at work.  Nice clear path, no panicky jackasses harassing me.  I can make it in home in about an hour and a half, I should be fine but things will get real interesting after that.   I really don’t think the EMP thing has a high probability of occurring, but it’s educational to think about what would happen if it did.  Sure hope I’m not on far away vacation, because getting home is going to be damn near impossible.

 

Golden Hordes, and bugging out

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This is one of favorite topics, the title refers loosely to the Mongol hordes that swept across eastern Europe, it’s used by some preppers to denote the supposed reaction of the US populace to calamities described earlier.  The theory is a collapse of the infrastructure will led to cities emptying out and a road system clogged with refugees and marauders, sweeping all before them (which is why you need a personal arsenal). As usual let’s look at this in detail:

  • Water. No water treament, no clean drinking water, no way to carry more than a few gallons. A day with no water you are suffering, 2-3 you are done.
  • Food. Same deal, try humping canned goods.
  • Shelter. Ever try sleeping in the open, on the ground?
  • Clothing. How far can the average person get on foot with no parka, socks, or hiking boots?
  • Weather. Try hiking in the rain, snow, cold, night, or blazing sun.
  • Disease and contagion. Accompanies refugees everywhere.

Things are not looking too good so far. Add hostile refugees, authorities, townspeople.  I noticed in Katrina and the Northridge earthquake people tended to stay put, I didn’t see a tendency to just hit the road.   Let’s assume that some make it out of Metropolis, they will not be in good shape and probably not capable of sustained suburban combat.  I’m not subscribing to the hordes idea, the odds are too high. You probably have more to fear from neighbors and people within foraging range than urban wankers. I will address this last point in a future post, as it’s fairly important.

The decision to stay put or flee is commonly refered to as “Bugging out/in”, and  is another popular topic for preppers.Most prefer the latter but the former has its adherents. Which is nuts, IMO, for the reasons I listed. There could be a scenario that required evacuation, but I am hard pressed to imagine what that might be. We’ll cover this later.