Category Archives: Prepper thinking

Observations on the prepper movement

Planning for the long term

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I see this as something most people get wrong (including me). We can all get by for a short time, but what about when things get really bad? Imagine you are stuck on your property for the duration, nothing coming in.  That’s a bitch, surviving for more than a year with little to no outside supply is really difficult to imagine let along accomplish.  The problem from what I see is we tend to be overoptimistic and weirdly selective about what’s needed.  I’ve seen a lot of women preppers with pantries bulging with canned food but no way to cook it, or ways to obtain clean drinking water. I’ll throw out a few examples of things that get overlooked:

  • Water collection. Absolutely the top priority, no water = end of the line. Imagine your bugging in at home, and there’s no city water. How do you get enough to drink? Assume the average adult needs 1 gallon per day minimum, not counting sanitation. Maybe there’s four of you, we’re now up to 4-5 gallons PER DAY.  It doesn’t rain enough in most places to yield this much on a regular basis, so some way to store it is an absolute must. How much? Probably a month or more, so 150 gallons. That’s three big drums, that you have to keep full.  What if it doesn’t rain for a while? Double that.
  • Water filtration and treatment.  When you open the tap, that water has been cleaned 9 ways to Sunday. Whatever you manage to collect needs to have bacteria and contaminants removed, even rain from the gutters (bird droppings, dirt, etc). Ever design a water treatment plant? Me neither. You may have to get water from some nasty sources in a pinch, so rain is actually a best-case option.
  • Heat. This is a big one. Not just heat to keep from freezing (who doesn’t live where the temp gets below 32?), but to boil water and cook. Most survival supplies need to be rehydrated, and you will likely need to cook things to supplement your diet. Bread, rice, beans, etc.
  • Light.  Even cavemen had light, you need some illumination to work after dark or to see where you are going. Not candles or oil lanterns, but an LED lamp or flashlight.
  • Electric power. EVERYTHING runs on electricity. Lamps, electric power tools, hair clippers, mixers, radios, things that are tough to find hand power equivalents for.
  • Fuel. Gasoline, LP gas, Kerosene. If you need to move via the road system, or run a generator you need gas. Kerosene runs stoves and heaters, and can be used in diesel engines.   LP gas for safe room heat and cooking.

This is just the major items, lack thereof could be lethal. BTW I’m leaving food as a separate category. There’s a bunch of other things that aren’t vital to life, but would make things damned unpleasant without them:

  • Toilet paper.
  • Soaps. Body, shampoo, laundry detergent, dish soap.
  • Toothpaste and floss.
  • Tubs and buckets. Where are you going to clean dishes, utensils, clothes, and your own nasty self?
  • Shavers.
  • Bleach. Vital to disinfecting water and other things as needed.
  • Matches. How were you going to light that burner? Flint?
  • Clothesline. I still haven’t bought this….gotta hang the wet stuff to dry.
  • Paper towels.

Golden Hordes, and bugging out

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This is one of favorite topics, the title refers loosely to the Mongol hordes that swept across eastern Europe, it’s used by some preppers to denote the supposed reaction of the US populace to calamities described earlier.  The theory is a collapse of the infrastructure will led to cities emptying out and a road system clogged with refugees and marauders, sweeping all before them (which is why you need a personal arsenal). As usual let’s look at this in detail:

  • Water. No water treament, no clean drinking water, no way to carry more than a few gallons. A day with no water you are suffering, 2-3 you are done.
  • Food. Same deal, try humping canned goods.
  • Shelter. Ever try sleeping in the open, on the ground?
  • Clothing. How far can the average person get on foot with no parka, socks, or hiking boots?
  • Weather. Try hiking in the rain, snow, cold, night, or blazing sun.
  • Disease and contagion. Accompanies refugees everywhere.

Things are not looking too good so far. Add hostile refugees, authorities, townspeople.  I noticed in Katrina and the Northridge earthquake people tended to stay put, I didn’t see a tendency to just hit the road.   Let’s assume that some make it out of Metropolis, they will not be in good shape and probably not capable of sustained suburban combat.  I’m not subscribing to the hordes idea, the odds are too high. You probably have more to fear from neighbors and people within foraging range than urban wankers. I will address this last point in a future post, as it’s fairly important.

The decision to stay put or flee is commonly refered to as “Bugging out/in”, and  is another popular topic for preppers.Most prefer the latter but the former has its adherents. Which is nuts, IMO, for the reasons I listed. There could be a scenario that required evacuation, but I am hard pressed to imagine what that might be. We’ll cover this later.

Guns ‘N Ammo

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Guns seem to be a major preoccupation with preppers, to the point of fetishism. I agree it’s important to have one or more, but they may be less important than you might think. Here’s some reasons why:

  • Your house/trailer/apartment isn’t set up to repel a coordinated assault by armed soldiers. Poking a rifle out a window is going to get you killed. No sandbags, trenches, revements, etc.
  • You need to be invisible to live. This means staying indoors by day, not walking around or blasting off rounds at the occasional wanderer. Firing attracts unwanted attention and can be heard for miles, esp. military rifles.
  • You are unlikely to use them to hunt as a primary food source, unless you live in a remote area with lots of game.

You need them as a last-resort option, as point defense but I can’t see anyone doing a lot of shooting, or at anything but close/mid range.

Let’s look at the other common assumption; the riff raff is armed and I need to protect my home:

  • Said riff raff is unlikely to be organized, packing any quantity of ammunition, or in clip/mag form, capable/willing of sustaining a high rate of fire, or willing to risk death. They will likely leave for easier pickings if resistance is found.  This isn’t the Waffen SS…
  • Riff raff has to travel on foot, though hostile territory, with no supplies, just to get to you. No food, water, or resupply. Once they exhaust their ammo, they are in trouble.
  • Riff raff has no idea which house will have a defender, or what the layout is. Every house is a potential death trap. Urban combat is the bane of all soldiers, just ask a veteran. There are lots of guys who got killed or wounded in Iraq/Afghan looking for insurgents in built up areas.

I’m not seeing the case for putting resources into 25,000 rounds of 5.56,  an AR-15, an illegal M-60 , etc. Empty sandbags and a trenching tool is a better deal.